This is what life really is all about, isn't it?

Or maybe rather ............

Undoubtedly, I would stay with my first choice. I very seldom second guess myself. When I do, my original choice usually proves to be correct. I do, however, believe in giving people a second chance in some instances. That's just me.

God sometimes does His work with gentle drizzle, not storms. Drip, drip, drip. John Newton
"Nothing can be sliced so thin that it doesn't have two sides" Anon.

i just have one question....are u stupid or what?!
its so clear the propability to have the prize is 1/3.......why?????? (cant believe it)

lets presume we have 200 boxes and only one of them have the prize
then we chose one of them.
the hustler then opens 198 boxes and all of them have no prizes but u must understand the hustler opens the ones he knows that they are empty...so all of u would presume u have 50% possibilty to have the prize????nooooooooooooooooo how could u be so lucky to chose the right one in a group of 200...
so the right percent is 0.005....
the same analogy is used on our problem so the answer is 1/3....
HOPE U UNDERSTOOD WHAT I SAD OR U MUST ADMIT U REALLY ARE STUPID...

quote:

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Originally posted by alen:
i just have one question....are u stupid or what?!
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HOPE U UNDERSTOOD WHAT I SAD OR U MUST ADMIT U REALLY ARE STUPID...

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Consider it your first warning, this is not appropriate speak.

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"Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes. Art is knowing which ones to keep."
-Scott Adams

This problem is really very simple and i am totally baffled by how people continue to complicate it...
If you imagine that you pick box A at the start, the probability that it is in box a is 1/3 where as the probability that it is in one of the other two is 2/3. the removing of one of the other boxes and the process of showing that it does not have anything in it means that it remains more likely that it is in one of the two other boxes opposed to box a that you picked at the beginning! it really is just that simple!

This is quite simple. There is no math or logic involved at all, actually. Everyone has been implying that you must physically choose a box, but that is never specified. Since, according to the problem, you do not necessarily tell the hustler which box you chose, you would stay with your choice. When there are two boxes left, he will most likely ask which box you chose (hoping to scam you into losing). So, when he asks which box you chose, you simply say
"I chose the box with the prize in it."
No complex math. No second guessing. You just out-hustle the hustler.